Commodity Exchanges
NCDEX MCX NMCEIL
A brief description of commodity exchanges are those which trade in particular commodities, neglecting the trade of securities, stock index futures and options etc. In the middle of 19th century in the United States, businessmen began organizing market forums to make the buying and selling of commodities easier. These central marketplaces provided a place for buyers and sellers to meet, set quality and quantity standards, and establish rules of business. Agricultural commodities were mostely traded but as long as there are buyers and sellers, any commodity can be traded. In 1872, a group of Manhattan dairy merchants got together to bring chaotic condition in New York market to a system in terms of storage, pricing, and transfer of agricultural products. In 1933, during the Great Depression, the Commodity Exchange, Inc., was established in New York through the merger of four small exchan ges – the National Metal Exchange, the Rubber Exchange of New York, the National Raw Silk Exchange, and the New York Hide Exchange. The major commodity markets are in the United Kingdom and in the USA. In india there are 25 recognised future exchanges, of which there are three national level multi-commodity exchanges. After a gap of almost three decades, Government of India has allowed forward transactions in commodities through Online Commodity Exchanges, a modification of traditional business known as Adhat and Vayda Vyapar to facilitate better risk coverage and delivery of commodities. The three exchanges are:
National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX)
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX)
National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL) All the exchanges have been set up under overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India. National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) located in Mumbai is a public limited company incorporated on April 23, 2003 under the Companies Act, 1956 and had commenced its operations on December 15, 2003.This is the only commodity exchange in the country promoted by national level institutions. It is promoted by ICICI Bank Limited, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) and National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). It is a professionally managed online multi commodity exchange. NCDEX is regulated by Forward Market Commission and is subjected to various laws of the land like the Companies Act, Stamp Act, Contracts Act, Forward Commission (Regulation) Act and various other legislations. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX)Headquartered in Mumbai Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX), is an independent and de-mutulised exchang with a permanent recognition from Government of India. Key shareholders of MCX are Financial Technologies (India) Ltd., State Bank of India, Union Bank of India, Corporation Bank, Bank of India and Canara Bank. MCX facilitates online trading, clearing and settlement operations for commodity futures markets across the country. MCX started offering trade in November 2003 and has built strategic alliances with Bombay Bullion Association, Bombay Metal Exchange, Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, Pulses Importers Association and Shetkari Sanghatana. National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL) is the first de-mutualized, Electronic Multi-Commodity Exchange in India. On 25th July, 2001, it was granted approval by the Government to organise trading in the edible oil complex. It has operationalised from November 26, 2002. It is being supported by Central Warehousing Corporation Ltd., Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board and Neptune Overseas Limited. It got its recognition in October 2002. Commodity exchange in india plays an important role where the prices of any commodity are not fixed, in an organised way. Earlier only the buyer of produce and its seller in the market judged upon the prices. Others never had a say. Today, commodity exchanges are purely speculative in nature. Before discovering the price, they reach to the producers, end-users, and even the retail investors, at a grassroots level. It brings a price transparency and risk management in the vital market. A big difference between a typical auction, where a single auctioneer announces the bids, and the Exchange is that people are not only competing to buy but also to sell. By Exchange rules and by law, no one can bid under a higher bid, and no one can offer to sell higher than somone else’s lower offer. That keeps the market as efficient as possible, and keeps the traders on their toes to make sure no one gets the purchase or sale before they do.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Definition of future contracts
Future contracts is an agreement made and traded on the exchange between two parties to buy or sell a commodity at a particular time in the future for a pre-defined price. Since both the parties are unaware of each other, the exchange provides a mechanism to give the party assurance of honoured contract. The exchange specifies standardized features of the contract. The risk to the holder is unlimited, and because the pay off pattern is symmetrical, the risk to the seller is unlimted as well.Money lost and gained by each party on a futures contract are equal and opposite. In other words, futures trading is a zero-sum game. These are basically forward contracts, meaning they represent a pledge to make a certain transaction at a future date. The exchange of assets occurs on the date specified in the contract. These are regulated by overseeing agencies, and are guaranteed by clearinghouses. Hedgers often trade futures for the purpose of keeping price risk in check. Future contracts are often used by commercial enterprises as ‘hedging tools’ to reduce the risk of expected future purchases or sales of the underlying asset. If used to speculate, risk increases. So risk depends on the underlying instrument and the use of the future. Advantages of Futures Contracts
If price moves are favourable, the producer realizes the greatest return with this marketing alternative.
No premium charge is associated with futures market contracts. Disadvantages of Future Contracts
Subject to margin calls
Unable to take advantage of favourable price moves
Net price is subject to Basis change Futures contracts are similar to Options. Both represent actions that occur in future. But Options are contract on the underlying futures contract where as futures are either to accept or deliver the actual physical commodity. To make a decision between using a futures contract or an options contract, producers need to evaluate both alternatives.
Future contracts is an agreement made and traded on the exchange between two parties to buy or sell a commodity at a particular time in the future for a pre-defined price. Since both the parties are unaware of each other, the exchange provides a mechanism to give the party assurance of honoured contract. The exchange specifies standardized features of the contract. The risk to the holder is unlimited, and because the pay off pattern is symmetrical, the risk to the seller is unlimted as well.Money lost and gained by each party on a futures contract are equal and opposite. In other words, futures trading is a zero-sum game. These are basically forward contracts, meaning they represent a pledge to make a certain transaction at a future date. The exchange of assets occurs on the date specified in the contract. These are regulated by overseeing agencies, and are guaranteed by clearinghouses. Hedgers often trade futures for the purpose of keeping price risk in check. Future contracts are often used by commercial enterprises as ‘hedging tools’ to reduce the risk of expected future purchases or sales of the underlying asset. If used to speculate, risk increases. So risk depends on the underlying instrument and the use of the future. Advantages of Futures Contracts
If price moves are favourable, the producer realizes the greatest return with this marketing alternative.
No premium charge is associated with futures market contracts. Disadvantages of Future Contracts
Subject to margin calls
Unable to take advantage of favourable price moves
Net price is subject to Basis change Futures contracts are similar to Options. Both represent actions that occur in future. But Options are contract on the underlying futures contract where as futures are either to accept or deliver the actual physical commodity. To make a decision between using a futures contract or an options contract, producers need to evaluate both alternatives.
Types of traders in a derivatives market
Hedgers, speculators and arbitrators are the types of traders in derivatives market.Hedgers : Hedgers are those who protect themselves from the risk associated with the price of an asset by using derivatives. A person keeps a close watch upon the prices discovered in trading and when the comfortable price is reflected according to his wants, he sells futures contracts. In this way he gets an assured fixed price of his produce. In general, hedgers use futures for protection against adverse future price movements in the underlying cash commodity. Hedgers are often businesses, or individuals, who at one point or another deal in the underlying cash commodity. Take an example: A Hedger pay more to the farmer or dealer of a produce if its prices go up. For protection against higher prices of the produce, he hedge the risk exposure by buying enough future contracts of the produce to cover the amount of produce he expects to buy. Since cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position will profit if the price of the produce rise enough to offset cash loss on the produce. Speculators : Speculators are some what like a middle man. They are never interested in actual owing the commodity. They will just buy from one end and sell it to the other in anticipation of future price movements. They actually bet on the future movement in the price of an asset. They are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. They handle trades for their personal clients or brokerage firms. Buying a futures contract in anticipation of price increases is known as ‘going long’. Selling a futures contract in anticipation of a price decrease is known as ‘going short’. Speculative participation in futures trading has increased with the availability of alternative methods of participation. Speculators have certain advantages over other investments they are as follows:
If the trader’s judgement is good, he can make more money in the futures market faster because prices tend, on average, to change more quickly than real estate or stock prices.
Futures are highly leveraged investments. The trader puts up a small fraction of the value of the underlying contract as margin, yet he can ride on the full value of the contract as it moves up and down. The money he puts up is not a down payment on the underlying contract, but a performance bond. The actual value of the contract is only exchanged on those rare occasions when delivery takes place. Arbitrators :According to dictionary definition, a person who has been officially chosen to make a decision between two people or groups who do not agree is known as Arbitrator. In commodity market Arbitrators are the person who take the advantage of a discepancy between prices in two different markets. If he finds future prices of a commodity edging out with the cash price, he will take offsetting positions in both the markets to lock in a profit. Moveover the commodity futures investor is not charged interest on the difference between margin and the full contract value.
Hedgers, speculators and arbitrators are the types of traders in derivatives market.Hedgers : Hedgers are those who protect themselves from the risk associated with the price of an asset by using derivatives. A person keeps a close watch upon the prices discovered in trading and when the comfortable price is reflected according to his wants, he sells futures contracts. In this way he gets an assured fixed price of his produce. In general, hedgers use futures for protection against adverse future price movements in the underlying cash commodity. Hedgers are often businesses, or individuals, who at one point or another deal in the underlying cash commodity. Take an example: A Hedger pay more to the farmer or dealer of a produce if its prices go up. For protection against higher prices of the produce, he hedge the risk exposure by buying enough future contracts of the produce to cover the amount of produce he expects to buy. Since cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position will profit if the price of the produce rise enough to offset cash loss on the produce. Speculators : Speculators are some what like a middle man. They are never interested in actual owing the commodity. They will just buy from one end and sell it to the other in anticipation of future price movements. They actually bet on the future movement in the price of an asset. They are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. They handle trades for their personal clients or brokerage firms. Buying a futures contract in anticipation of price increases is known as ‘going long’. Selling a futures contract in anticipation of a price decrease is known as ‘going short’. Speculative participation in futures trading has increased with the availability of alternative methods of participation. Speculators have certain advantages over other investments they are as follows:
If the trader’s judgement is good, he can make more money in the futures market faster because prices tend, on average, to change more quickly than real estate or stock prices.
Futures are highly leveraged investments. The trader puts up a small fraction of the value of the underlying contract as margin, yet he can ride on the full value of the contract as it moves up and down. The money he puts up is not a down payment on the underlying contract, but a performance bond. The actual value of the contract is only exchanged on those rare occasions when delivery takes place. Arbitrators :According to dictionary definition, a person who has been officially chosen to make a decision between two people or groups who do not agree is known as Arbitrator. In commodity market Arbitrators are the person who take the advantage of a discepancy between prices in two different markets. If he finds future prices of a commodity edging out with the cash price, he will take offsetting positions in both the markets to lock in a profit. Moveover the commodity futures investor is not charged interest on the difference between margin and the full contract value.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Monday, June 30, 2008
History
The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established, there must be very broad consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another.
The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to over-estimate. Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of, improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded interstate and international trade."
Early history of commodity markets
Historically, dating from ancient Sumerian use of sheep or goats, or other peoples using pigs, rare seashells, or other items as commodity money, people have sought ways to standardize and trade contracts in the delivery of such items, to render trade itself more smooth and predictable.
Commodity money and commodity markets in a crude early form are believed to have originated in Sumer where small baked clay tokens in the shape of sheep or goats were used in trade. Sealed in clay vessels with a certain number of such tokens, with that number written on the outside, they represented a promise to deliver that number. This made them a form of commodity money - more than an "I.O.U." but less than a guarantee by a nation-state or bank. However, they were also known to contain promises of time and date of delivery - this made them like a modern futures contract. Regardless of the details, it was only possible to verify the number of tokens inside by shaking the vessel or by breaking it, at which point the number or terms written on the outside became subject to doubt. Eventually the tokens disappeared, but the contracts remained on flat tablets. This represented the first system of commodity accounting.
However, the Commodity status of living things is always subject to doubt - it was hard to validate the health or existence of sheep or goats. Excuses for non-delivery were not unknown, and there are recovered Sumerian letters that complain of sickly goats, sheep that had already been fleeced, etc.
If a seller's reputation was good, individual "backers" or "bankers" could decide to take the risk of "clearing" a trade. The observation that trust is always required between market participants later led to credit money. But until relatively modern times, communication and credit were primitive.
Classical civilizations built complex global markets trading gold or silver for spices, cloth, wood and weapons, most of which had standards of quality and timeliness. Considering the many hazards of climate, piracy, theft and abuse of military fiat by rulers of kingdoms along the trade routes, it was a major focus of these civilizations to keep markets open and trading in these scarce commodities. Reputation and clearing became central concerns, and the states which could handle them most effectively became very powerful empires, trusted by many peoples to manage and mediate trade and commerce.
Investment Returns
This is a much-debated topic amongst academia. It is generally agreed that commodities have an expected return of 5% in real terms which is based on the risk premium for 116 different commodities weighted equally since 1888 (Source Report 219171-Wharton Business School). It is common for investment professionals to mistakenly claim there is no risk premium in commodites.
Spot trading
Spot trading is any transaction where delivery either takes place immediately, or if there is a minimum lag, due to technical constraints, between the trade and delivery. Commodities constitute the only spot markets which have existed nearly throughout the history of humankind.
Forward contracts
A forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange at some fixed future date a given quantity of a commodity for a price defined today. The fixed price today is known as the forward price.
Futures contracts
A futures contract has the same general features as a forward contract but is transacted through a futures exchange.
Commodity and Futures contracts are based on what’s termed "Forward" Contracts. Early on these "forward" contracts (agreements to buy now, pay and deliver later) were used as a way of getting products from producer to the consumer. These typically were only for food and agricultural Products. Forward contracts have evolved and have been standardized into what we know today as futures contracts. Although more complex today, early “Forward” contracts for example, were used for rice in seventeenth century Japan. Modern "forward", or futures agreements, began in Chicago in the 1840s, with the appearance of the railroads. Chicago, being centrally located, emerged as the hub between Midwestern farmers and producers and the east coast consumer population centers.
Hedging
"Hedging", a common (and sometimes mandatory) practice of farming cooperatives, insures against a poor harvest by purchasing futures contracts in the same commodity. If the cooperative has significantly less of its product to sell due to weather or insects, it makes up for that loss with a profit on the markets, since the overall supply of the crop is short everywhere that suffered the same conditions.
Whole developing nations may be especially vulnerable, and even their currency tends to be tied to the price of those particular commodity items until it manages to be a fully developed nation. For example, one could see the nominally fiat money of Cuba as being tied to sugar prices, since a lack of hard currency paying for sugar means less foreign goods per peso in Cuba itself. In effect, Cuba needs a hedge against a drop in sugar prices, if it wishes to maintain a stable quality of life for its citizens.
Delivery and condition guarantees
In addition, delivery day, method of settlement and delivery point must all be specified. Typically, trading must end two (or more) business days prior to the delivery day, so that the routing of the shipment can be finalized via ship or rail, and payment can be settled when the contract arrives at any delivery point.
Standardization
U.S. soybean futures, for example, are of standard grade if they are "GMO or a mixture of GMO and Non-GMO No. 2 yellow soybeans of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan origin produced in the U.S.A. (Non-screened, stored in silo)," and of deliverable grade if they are "GMO or a mixture of GMO and Non-GMO No. 2 yellow soybeans of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin origin produced in the U.S.A. (Non-screened, stored in silo)." Note the distinction between states, and the need to clearly mention their status as "GMO" ("Genetically Modified Organism") which makes them unacceptable to most "organic" food buyers.
Similar specifications apply for cotton, orange juice, cocoa, sugar, wheat, corn, barley, pork bellies, milk, feedstuffs, fruits, vegetables, other grains, other beans, hay, other livestock, meats, poultry, eggs, or any other commodity which is so traded.
The concept of an interchangeable deliverable or guaranteed delivery is always to some degree a fiction. Trade in commodities is like trade in any other physical product or service. No magic of the commodity contract itself makes "units" of the product totally uniform nor gets it to the delivery point safely and on time.
Regulation of commodity markets
Cotton, kilowatt-hours of electricity, board feet of wood, long distance minutes, royalty payments due on artists' works, and other products and services have been traded on markets of varying scale, with varying degrees of success. One issue that presents major difficulty for creators of such instruments is the liability accruing to the purchaser:
Unless the product or service can be guaranteed or insured to be free of liability based on where it came from and how it got to market, e.g. kilowatts must come to market free from legitimate claims for smog death from coal burning plants, wood must be free from claims that it comes from protected forests, royalty payments must be free of claims of plagiarism or piracy, it becomes impossible for sellers to guarantee a uniform delivery.
Generally, governments must provide a common regulatory or insurance standard and some release of liability, or at least a backing of the insurers, before a commodity market can begin trading. This is a major source of controversy in for instance the energy market, where desirability of different kinds of power generation varies drastically. In some markets, e.g. Toronto, Canada, surveys established that customers would pay 10-15% more for energy that was not from coal or nuclear, but strictly from renewable sources such as wind.
In the United States, the principal regulator of commodity and futures markets is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Proliferation of contracts, terms, and derivatives
However, if there are two or more standards of risk or quality, as there seem to be for electricity or soybeans, it is relatively easy to establish two different contracts to trade in the more and less desirable deliverable separately. If the consumer acceptance and liability problems can be solved, the product can be made interchangeable, and trading in such units can begin.
Since the detailed concerns of industrial and consumer markets vary widely, so do the contracts, and "grades" tend to vary significantly from country to country. A proliferation of contract units, terms, and futures contracts have evolved, combined into an extremely sophisticated range of financial instruments.
These are more than one-to-one representations of units of a given type of commodity, and represent more than simple futures contracts for future deliveries. These serve a variety of purposes from simple gambling to price insurance.
The underlying of futures contracts are no longer restricted to commodities.
Oil
Building on the infrastructure and credit and settlement networks established for food and precious metals, many such markets have proliferated drastically in the late 20th century. Oil was the first form of energy so widely traded, and the fluctuations in the oil markets are of particular political interest.
Some commodity market speculation is directly related to the stability of certain states, e.g. during the Persian Gulf War, speculation on the survival of the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Similar political stability concerns have from time to time driven the price of oil. Some argue that this is not so much a commodity market but more of an assassination market speculating on the survival (or not) of Saddam or other leaders whose personal decisions may cause oil supply to fluctuate by military action.
The oil market is an exception. Most markets are not so tied to the politics of volatile regions - even natural gas tends to be more stable, as it is not traded across oceans by tanker as extensively.
Commodity markets and protectionism
Developing countries (democratic or not) have been moved to harden their currencies, accept IMF rules, join the WTO, and submit to a broad regime of reforms that amount to a "hedge" against being isolated. China's entry into the WTO signalled the end of truly isolated nations entirely managing their own currency and affairs. The need for stable currency and predictable clearing and rules-based handling of trade disputes, has led to a global trade hegemony - many nations "hedging" on a global scale against each other's anticipated "protectionism", were they to fail to join the WTO.
There are signs, however, that this regime is far from perfect. U.S. trade sanctions against Canadian softwood lumber (within NAFTA) and foreign steel (except for NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico) in 2002 signalled a shift in policy towards a tougher regime perhaps more driven by political concerns - jobs, industrial policy, even sustainable forestry and logging practices.
Nature's commodity outputs
Commodity thinking is undergoing a more direct revival[citation needed] thanks to the theorists of "natural capital" whose products, some economists[who?] argue, are the only genuine commodities - air, water, and calories we consume being mostly interchangeable when they are free of pollution or disease. Whether we wish to think of these things as tradeable commodities rather than birthrights has been a major source of controversy[citation needed] in many nations.
Most types of environmental economics consider the shift to measuring them inevitable[citation needed], arguing that reframing political economy to consider the flow of these basic commodities first and foremost, helps avoids use of any military fiat except to protect "natural capital" itself, and basing credit-worthiness more strictly on commitment to preserving biodiversity aligns the long-term interests of ecoregions, societies, and individuals. They seek relatively conservative sustainable development schemes that would be amenable to measuring well-being over long periods of time, typically "seven generations", in line with Native American thought.[citation needed]
Weather trading
However, this is not the only way in which commodity thinking interacts with ecologists' thinking. Hedging began as a way to escape the consequences of damage done by natural conditions[citation needed]. It has matured not only into a system of interlocking guarantees, but also into a system of indirectly trading on the actual damage done by weather, using weather derivatives. For a price, this relieves the purchaser of concerns such as whether a freeze will hurt the Brazilian coffee crop , whether there will be a drought in the U.S. Corn Belt and what the chances that we will have a cold winter are, driving natural gas prices higher and creating havoc in Florida orange areas.
Emissions trading
Weather trading is just one example of "negative commodities", units of which represent harm rather than good.
"Economy is three fifths of ecology"[cite this quote] argues Mike Nickerson, one of many[who?] economic theorists who holds that nature's productive services and waste disposal services are poorly accounted for. One way to fairly allocate the waste disposal capacity of nature is "cap and trade" market structure that is used to trade toxic emissions rights in the United States, e.g. SO2. This is in effect a "negative commodity", a right to throw something away.
In this market, the atmosphere's capacity to absorb certain amounts of pollutants is measured, divided into units, and traded amongst various market players. Those who emit more SO2 must pay those who emit less. Critics of such schemes argue that unauthorized or unregulated emissions still happen, and that "grandfathering" schemes often permit major polluters, such as the state governments' own agencies, or poorer countries, to expand emissions and take jobs, while the SO2 output still floats over the border and causes death.
In practice, political pressure has overcome most such concerns[citation needed] and it is questionable whether this is a capacity that depends on U.S. clout: The Kyoto Protocol established a similar market in global greenhouse gas emissions without U.S. support.
Community as commodity?
This highlights one of the major issues with global commodity markets of either the positive or negative kind. A community must somehow believe that the commodity instrument is real, enforceable, and well worth paying for.
A very substantial part of the anti-globalization movement opposes the commodification of currency, national sovereignty, and traditional cultures. The capacity to repay debt, as in the current global credit money regime anchored by the Bank for International Settlements, does not in their view correspond to measurable benefits to human well-being worldwide. They seek a fairer way for societies to compete in the global markets that will not require conversion of natural capital to natural resources, nor human capital to move to developed nations in order to find work.
Some economic systems by green economists would replace the "gold standard" with a "biodiversity standard". It remains to be seen if such plans have any merit other than as political ways to draw attention to the way capitalism itself interacts with life.
Is human life a commodity?
While classical, neoclassical, and Marxist approaches to economics tend to treat labor differently, they are united in treating nature as a resource.
The green economists and the more conservative environmental economics argue that not only natural ecologies, but also the life of the individual human being is treated as a commodity by the global markets. A good example is the IPCC calculations cited by the Global Commons Institute as placing a value on a human life in the developed world "15x higher" than in the developing world, based solely on the ability to pay to prevent climate change.
Is free time a commodity?
Accepting this result, some[who?] argue that to put a price on both is the most reasonable way to proceed to optimize and increase that value relative to other goods or services. This has led to efforts in measuring well-being, to assign a commercial "value of life", and to the theory of Natural Capitalism - fusions of green and neoclassical approaches - which focus predictably on energy and material efficiency, i.e. using far less of any given commodity input to achieve the same service outputs as a result.
Indian economist Amartya Sen, applying this thinking to human freedom itself, argued in his 1999 book "Development as Freedom" that human free time was the only real service, and that sustainable development was best defined as freeing human time. Sen won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1999 and based his book on invited lectures he gave at the World Bank.
The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established, there must be very broad consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another.
The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to over-estimate. Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of, improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded interstate and international trade."
Early history of commodity markets
Historically, dating from ancient Sumerian use of sheep or goats, or other peoples using pigs, rare seashells, or other items as commodity money, people have sought ways to standardize and trade contracts in the delivery of such items, to render trade itself more smooth and predictable.
Commodity money and commodity markets in a crude early form are believed to have originated in Sumer where small baked clay tokens in the shape of sheep or goats were used in trade. Sealed in clay vessels with a certain number of such tokens, with that number written on the outside, they represented a promise to deliver that number. This made them a form of commodity money - more than an "I.O.U." but less than a guarantee by a nation-state or bank. However, they were also known to contain promises of time and date of delivery - this made them like a modern futures contract. Regardless of the details, it was only possible to verify the number of tokens inside by shaking the vessel or by breaking it, at which point the number or terms written on the outside became subject to doubt. Eventually the tokens disappeared, but the contracts remained on flat tablets. This represented the first system of commodity accounting.
However, the Commodity status of living things is always subject to doubt - it was hard to validate the health or existence of sheep or goats. Excuses for non-delivery were not unknown, and there are recovered Sumerian letters that complain of sickly goats, sheep that had already been fleeced, etc.
If a seller's reputation was good, individual "backers" or "bankers" could decide to take the risk of "clearing" a trade. The observation that trust is always required between market participants later led to credit money. But until relatively modern times, communication and credit were primitive.
Classical civilizations built complex global markets trading gold or silver for spices, cloth, wood and weapons, most of which had standards of quality and timeliness. Considering the many hazards of climate, piracy, theft and abuse of military fiat by rulers of kingdoms along the trade routes, it was a major focus of these civilizations to keep markets open and trading in these scarce commodities. Reputation and clearing became central concerns, and the states which could handle them most effectively became very powerful empires, trusted by many peoples to manage and mediate trade and commerce.
Investment Returns
This is a much-debated topic amongst academia. It is generally agreed that commodities have an expected return of 5% in real terms which is based on the risk premium for 116 different commodities weighted equally since 1888 (Source Report 219171-Wharton Business School). It is common for investment professionals to mistakenly claim there is no risk premium in commodites.
Spot trading
Spot trading is any transaction where delivery either takes place immediately, or if there is a minimum lag, due to technical constraints, between the trade and delivery. Commodities constitute the only spot markets which have existed nearly throughout the history of humankind.
Forward contracts
A forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange at some fixed future date a given quantity of a commodity for a price defined today. The fixed price today is known as the forward price.
Futures contracts
A futures contract has the same general features as a forward contract but is transacted through a futures exchange.
Commodity and Futures contracts are based on what’s termed "Forward" Contracts. Early on these "forward" contracts (agreements to buy now, pay and deliver later) were used as a way of getting products from producer to the consumer. These typically were only for food and agricultural Products. Forward contracts have evolved and have been standardized into what we know today as futures contracts. Although more complex today, early “Forward” contracts for example, were used for rice in seventeenth century Japan. Modern "forward", or futures agreements, began in Chicago in the 1840s, with the appearance of the railroads. Chicago, being centrally located, emerged as the hub between Midwestern farmers and producers and the east coast consumer population centers.
Hedging
"Hedging", a common (and sometimes mandatory) practice of farming cooperatives, insures against a poor harvest by purchasing futures contracts in the same commodity. If the cooperative has significantly less of its product to sell due to weather or insects, it makes up for that loss with a profit on the markets, since the overall supply of the crop is short everywhere that suffered the same conditions.
Whole developing nations may be especially vulnerable, and even their currency tends to be tied to the price of those particular commodity items until it manages to be a fully developed nation. For example, one could see the nominally fiat money of Cuba as being tied to sugar prices, since a lack of hard currency paying for sugar means less foreign goods per peso in Cuba itself. In effect, Cuba needs a hedge against a drop in sugar prices, if it wishes to maintain a stable quality of life for its citizens.
Delivery and condition guarantees
In addition, delivery day, method of settlement and delivery point must all be specified. Typically, trading must end two (or more) business days prior to the delivery day, so that the routing of the shipment can be finalized via ship or rail, and payment can be settled when the contract arrives at any delivery point.
Standardization
U.S. soybean futures, for example, are of standard grade if they are "GMO or a mixture of GMO and Non-GMO No. 2 yellow soybeans of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan origin produced in the U.S.A. (Non-screened, stored in silo)," and of deliverable grade if they are "GMO or a mixture of GMO and Non-GMO No. 2 yellow soybeans of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin origin produced in the U.S.A. (Non-screened, stored in silo)." Note the distinction between states, and the need to clearly mention their status as "GMO" ("Genetically Modified Organism") which makes them unacceptable to most "organic" food buyers.
Similar specifications apply for cotton, orange juice, cocoa, sugar, wheat, corn, barley, pork bellies, milk, feedstuffs, fruits, vegetables, other grains, other beans, hay, other livestock, meats, poultry, eggs, or any other commodity which is so traded.
The concept of an interchangeable deliverable or guaranteed delivery is always to some degree a fiction. Trade in commodities is like trade in any other physical product or service. No magic of the commodity contract itself makes "units" of the product totally uniform nor gets it to the delivery point safely and on time.
Regulation of commodity markets
Cotton, kilowatt-hours of electricity, board feet of wood, long distance minutes, royalty payments due on artists' works, and other products and services have been traded on markets of varying scale, with varying degrees of success. One issue that presents major difficulty for creators of such instruments is the liability accruing to the purchaser:
Unless the product or service can be guaranteed or insured to be free of liability based on where it came from and how it got to market, e.g. kilowatts must come to market free from legitimate claims for smog death from coal burning plants, wood must be free from claims that it comes from protected forests, royalty payments must be free of claims of plagiarism or piracy, it becomes impossible for sellers to guarantee a uniform delivery.
Generally, governments must provide a common regulatory or insurance standard and some release of liability, or at least a backing of the insurers, before a commodity market can begin trading. This is a major source of controversy in for instance the energy market, where desirability of different kinds of power generation varies drastically. In some markets, e.g. Toronto, Canada, surveys established that customers would pay 10-15% more for energy that was not from coal or nuclear, but strictly from renewable sources such as wind.
In the United States, the principal regulator of commodity and futures markets is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Proliferation of contracts, terms, and derivatives
However, if there are two or more standards of risk or quality, as there seem to be for electricity or soybeans, it is relatively easy to establish two different contracts to trade in the more and less desirable deliverable separately. If the consumer acceptance and liability problems can be solved, the product can be made interchangeable, and trading in such units can begin.
Since the detailed concerns of industrial and consumer markets vary widely, so do the contracts, and "grades" tend to vary significantly from country to country. A proliferation of contract units, terms, and futures contracts have evolved, combined into an extremely sophisticated range of financial instruments.
These are more than one-to-one representations of units of a given type of commodity, and represent more than simple futures contracts for future deliveries. These serve a variety of purposes from simple gambling to price insurance.
The underlying of futures contracts are no longer restricted to commodities.
Oil
Building on the infrastructure and credit and settlement networks established for food and precious metals, many such markets have proliferated drastically in the late 20th century. Oil was the first form of energy so widely traded, and the fluctuations in the oil markets are of particular political interest.
Some commodity market speculation is directly related to the stability of certain states, e.g. during the Persian Gulf War, speculation on the survival of the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Similar political stability concerns have from time to time driven the price of oil. Some argue that this is not so much a commodity market but more of an assassination market speculating on the survival (or not) of Saddam or other leaders whose personal decisions may cause oil supply to fluctuate by military action.
The oil market is an exception. Most markets are not so tied to the politics of volatile regions - even natural gas tends to be more stable, as it is not traded across oceans by tanker as extensively.
Commodity markets and protectionism
Developing countries (democratic or not) have been moved to harden their currencies, accept IMF rules, join the WTO, and submit to a broad regime of reforms that amount to a "hedge" against being isolated. China's entry into the WTO signalled the end of truly isolated nations entirely managing their own currency and affairs. The need for stable currency and predictable clearing and rules-based handling of trade disputes, has led to a global trade hegemony - many nations "hedging" on a global scale against each other's anticipated "protectionism", were they to fail to join the WTO.
There are signs, however, that this regime is far from perfect. U.S. trade sanctions against Canadian softwood lumber (within NAFTA) and foreign steel (except for NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico) in 2002 signalled a shift in policy towards a tougher regime perhaps more driven by political concerns - jobs, industrial policy, even sustainable forestry and logging practices.
Nature's commodity outputs
Commodity thinking is undergoing a more direct revival[citation needed] thanks to the theorists of "natural capital" whose products, some economists[who?] argue, are the only genuine commodities - air, water, and calories we consume being mostly interchangeable when they are free of pollution or disease. Whether we wish to think of these things as tradeable commodities rather than birthrights has been a major source of controversy[citation needed] in many nations.
Most types of environmental economics consider the shift to measuring them inevitable[citation needed], arguing that reframing political economy to consider the flow of these basic commodities first and foremost, helps avoids use of any military fiat except to protect "natural capital" itself, and basing credit-worthiness more strictly on commitment to preserving biodiversity aligns the long-term interests of ecoregions, societies, and individuals. They seek relatively conservative sustainable development schemes that would be amenable to measuring well-being over long periods of time, typically "seven generations", in line with Native American thought.[citation needed]
Weather trading
However, this is not the only way in which commodity thinking interacts with ecologists' thinking. Hedging began as a way to escape the consequences of damage done by natural conditions[citation needed]. It has matured not only into a system of interlocking guarantees, but also into a system of indirectly trading on the actual damage done by weather, using weather derivatives. For a price, this relieves the purchaser of concerns such as whether a freeze will hurt the Brazilian coffee crop , whether there will be a drought in the U.S. Corn Belt and what the chances that we will have a cold winter are, driving natural gas prices higher and creating havoc in Florida orange areas.
Emissions trading
Weather trading is just one example of "negative commodities", units of which represent harm rather than good.
"Economy is three fifths of ecology"[cite this quote] argues Mike Nickerson, one of many[who?] economic theorists who holds that nature's productive services and waste disposal services are poorly accounted for. One way to fairly allocate the waste disposal capacity of nature is "cap and trade" market structure that is used to trade toxic emissions rights in the United States, e.g. SO2. This is in effect a "negative commodity", a right to throw something away.
In this market, the atmosphere's capacity to absorb certain amounts of pollutants is measured, divided into units, and traded amongst various market players. Those who emit more SO2 must pay those who emit less. Critics of such schemes argue that unauthorized or unregulated emissions still happen, and that "grandfathering" schemes often permit major polluters, such as the state governments' own agencies, or poorer countries, to expand emissions and take jobs, while the SO2 output still floats over the border and causes death.
In practice, political pressure has overcome most such concerns[citation needed] and it is questionable whether this is a capacity that depends on U.S. clout: The Kyoto Protocol established a similar market in global greenhouse gas emissions without U.S. support.
Community as commodity?
This highlights one of the major issues with global commodity markets of either the positive or negative kind. A community must somehow believe that the commodity instrument is real, enforceable, and well worth paying for.
A very substantial part of the anti-globalization movement opposes the commodification of currency, national sovereignty, and traditional cultures. The capacity to repay debt, as in the current global credit money regime anchored by the Bank for International Settlements, does not in their view correspond to measurable benefits to human well-being worldwide. They seek a fairer way for societies to compete in the global markets that will not require conversion of natural capital to natural resources, nor human capital to move to developed nations in order to find work.
Some economic systems by green economists would replace the "gold standard" with a "biodiversity standard". It remains to be seen if such plans have any merit other than as political ways to draw attention to the way capitalism itself interacts with life.
Is human life a commodity?
While classical, neoclassical, and Marxist approaches to economics tend to treat labor differently, they are united in treating nature as a resource.
The green economists and the more conservative environmental economics argue that not only natural ecologies, but also the life of the individual human being is treated as a commodity by the global markets. A good example is the IPCC calculations cited by the Global Commons Institute as placing a value on a human life in the developed world "15x higher" than in the developing world, based solely on the ability to pay to prevent climate change.
Is free time a commodity?
Accepting this result, some[who?] argue that to put a price on both is the most reasonable way to proceed to optimize and increase that value relative to other goods or services. This has led to efforts in measuring well-being, to assign a commercial "value of life", and to the theory of Natural Capitalism - fusions of green and neoclassical approaches - which focus predictably on energy and material efficiency, i.e. using far less of any given commodity input to achieve the same service outputs as a result.
Indian economist Amartya Sen, applying this thinking to human freedom itself, argued in his 1999 book "Development as Freedom" that human free time was the only real service, and that sustainable development was best defined as freeing human time. Sen won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1999 and based his book on invited lectures he gave at the World Bank.
Futures exchange
In the original and simplified sense, commodities were things of value, of uniform quality, that were produced in large quantities by many different producers; the items from each different producer are considered equivalent. It is the contract and this underlying standard that define the commodity, not any quality inherent in the product.
Commodities exchanges include:
Chicago Board of Trade
Euronext.liffe
London Metal Exchange
New York Mercantile Exchange
Multi Commodity Exchange
Dalian Commodity Exchange
Markets for trading commodities can be very efficient, particularly if the division into pools matches demand segments. These markets will quickly respond to changes in supply and demand to find an equilibrium price and quantity. In addition, investors can gain passive exposure to the commodity markets through a commodity price index.in india www.mcxindia.com and www.ncdex.com
In the original and simplified sense, commodities were things of value, of uniform quality, that were produced in large quantities by many different producers; the items from each different producer are considered equivalent. It is the contract and this underlying standard that define the commodity, not any quality inherent in the product.
Commodities exchanges include:
Chicago Board of Trade
Euronext.liffe
London Metal Exchange
New York Mercantile Exchange
Multi Commodity Exchange
Dalian Commodity Exchange
Markets for trading commodities can be very efficient, particularly if the division into pools matches demand segments. These markets will quickly respond to changes in supply and demand to find an equilibrium price and quantity. In addition, investors can gain passive exposure to the commodity markets through a commodity price index.in india www.mcxindia.com and www.ncdex.com
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